Thursday, December 18, 2008

Mobile Web wave swelling

I think its good to focus on the beacons of hope in the tech and web spaces these days in light of the recent climate.
I wanted to lay out my musings about what i call the Mobile Web Wave. In essence the true coming of mobile2.0 that many people heralded at the same time as web2.0.I think the 2.0 branding craze mislead the industry perception into discussing the mobile2.0 boom before it happened. I think it is starting to happen now. We are finally now entering mobile2.0 in terms of mobile web serving as an ecosystem to support venture opportunities.
I believe it will be one of the few growth markets and focus points of innovation in the next 24 months as this recession plays out.

The premise of the Mobile Web Wave and the following market opportunity is very simple.

Here are the assumptions:
1. The iPhone truly caused a design paradigm revolution in mobile by creating an example of how a touchscreen browser can be truly useful. (great built in WiFi definitely plays a major role)

2. iPhone users generate 50 x more mobile web page requests that lets say Razr users. The reason behind the higher web consumption is the touch screen iphone browser.

3. Since other phones are shipping with iPhone like browsers: G1, Storm, Instinct, Prada I and II, Omnia, Xperia, Skyfire,iPod touch, Fennec etc

You add these 3 things up and you get the following:

Within 6 months the US market alone will have 35 million touchscreen phones.

so thats at least 35 million x 50/ month = 1,750,000,000 more pages being requested per month . This huge growth in mobile web page demand will trigger a rush to create purely mobile sites thus creating a mini Mobile Web bubble.

I think that within 18 months there will be more touchscreen mobile web pages requested/month then all of the page views of wap combined. Assuming that the adoption of wifi, data plans, and touchscreens remains constant to the past 6 months.

Am i the only one noticing this trend ? Am i way off ? Let me know if you have a different take in the comments.

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